Good morning traders
KEY POINTS
The print: a beat on revenue and earnings, and a Q4 guide about 5% above the street.
After hours: up 9.6% at the best, up 5.0% by 8pm ET.
Silver: the gold to silver ratio is about 79, cheap or not depending on your start date.
AMD reported on Tuesday evening and beat on revenue and earnings. The stock jumped 9.6% at its best and was up 5.0% when after-hours closed. I'm long, and here's how I read it.
What AMD printed
Revenue was $13.38 billion, up 45% on a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings were $2.09 a share, against $1.95 expected. The Data Center segment was $8.55 billion, up 97%.
The fourth quarter guide is about $17 billion, against a $16.2 billion average estimate. The gross margin guide of about 55% non-GAAP was a touch under the 55.3% average estimate.
What it did after hours
AMD closed at $483.90, ran to $530.38 at 4:42pm ET and was at $508.20 by 8:00pm ET. Nearly half the gain went in about three hours.
It had fallen 19.3% from its 28 October close to its 2 November close, so there were holders waiting to sell into good news. Nothing in the report changed during those hours, which suggests some of them did. This morning it gave the rest back: around 8:20am ET it's near $480, below Tuesday's close.
What it needs next
Helios ships on time. AMD called the fourth quarter a "big step-up" for those racks.
Margins hold. AI hardware dilutes the average, and the CFO said so.
The inventory build pays off. Inventory is $11.5 billion, up about $3.5 billion since December.
I don't add into a gap. If it holds the gain through the first hour, the plan runs as written. If it fills back to Tuesday's close, I don't average down.
Silver
I'm long silver and buying the physical metal too. Silver has fallen about 59% from its January high of $121, and one ounce of gold now buys about 79 ounces of silver.
Against the start of the year that looks cheap. Against the ten-year average of about 81 it doesn't. My own view is that silver trades above $200 by 2028. That's an opinion, and it needs the ratio to fall to about 28 with gold at its January high. The 2026 deficit is forecast at 46.3 million ounces, about 4% of demand, so the shortage is real and small.
What this does for you
If a good number can fade by the evening, a plan written beforehand is worth more than a reaction. The RB Journal logs each trade against the plan you wrote for it. The Trading Desk shows the free board.
→ Where does your own process leak around a gap? The investing quiz finds it.
→ Tradeify FX, one of the firms I trade with, has an up to 50% off sale on now: see the deal. Not open to US residents.
Some links are affiliate links, and I may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Education, not financial advice. The $200 figure is the author's opinion and not a forecast. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.